Are Americans really more pro-life? The truth is that it is the wrong question. The question of whether or not someone identifies as pro-life or pro-choice has as much to do with the terms themselves that it does with their views on abortion.
A recent Gallup poll reported that 51% of those surveyed identified as pro-life, while 42% identified as pro-choice. For the first time since Gallup began polling on the subject in 1995 a majority of Americans self identified as pro-life. However, when you look at the public's specific views on the legality of abortion it has remained relatively constant over the last thirty-five years. Since 1975 at least 48% of those surveyed believe that abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, and at least 22% of those surveyed believe that abortion should be legal under all circumstances. While those surveyed who believe that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances has never had more than 22% and as low as 12%. Currently 53% of those surveyed believe that abortion should be legal in certain circumstances and 22% believe it should be legal in all circumstances.
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation asked if respondents would want the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe v Wade decision, and 68% of those surveyed did not want the decision overturned. Public opinion in support of Roe v Wade has remained constant, if not increasing, over the last twenty years. This is perhaps a much more truthful depiction of the public's overall opinion on abortion, there is a difference between a people self identifying as pro-life or pro-choice and their propensity to support legal abortion. Nate Silver of 538 notes "the terms 'pro-choice' and 'pro-life' are at least somewhat fungible; years of Democrats saying things like 'I am personally opposed to abortion, but I don't think I have a right to impose my few on the rest of society'."
The most recent poll on the subject is an Associated Press and GfK poll that found that 20% of those surveyed believe that abortion should be completely illegal, and 24% believe it should be legal in most cases. Also, 19% believed that abortion should be legal in all cases, and 33% believed that it should be legal in most cases. (5% of those polled were unsure about the legality of abortion) The percentage of those who believe abortion should be completely illegal decreases when you ask the question differently. When asked if abortion should be made illegal without any exceptions (cases of rape, incest and to save the mother's life), a NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll found that only 10% believe that it should be completely illegal.
The issue becomes even more complex when you take into a consideration that a recent Rasmussen Reports poll found that 52% of those surveyed believe that it is too easy to obtain an abortion in the United States, while only 13% believe it is too hard to get an abortion. However, according to the Guttmacher Institute 87% of all counties in the United States do not have an abortion provider. Also, according to the same Rasmussen poll 29% of those that self identified as pro-choice also believe that most abortions are morally wrong. This shows that although someone may believe that abortion is morally wrong, they also believe that the choice should be available.
What begins to become apparent when looking at a broad view of the polling data is that roughly the same percentage believe that it should be either completely legal or completely illegal (20%). The majority of Americans (the other 60%) have a much more nuanced view of abortion, and believe that abortion should be neither completely illegal or completely legal. While Fox News describes the poll as a "cultural shift" and Townhall characterizes the poll as a "watershed moment for the pro-life movement," however, it is unlikely that this represents a complete change in Americans' views of abortion and more likely that it represents a change in Americans' perception of the terms "pro-choice" and "pro-life."
