While voters in our groups gave the president higher marks on the economy after the speech than before, that was clearly driven by his new priority, jobs, and perhaps a clearer understanding of the difference between Bush era policies and the new one. Still, the president and the Democrats in Congress do not yet have a narrative or a framework to explain their economic policies in a period where the gap grows between macro and micro growth.
To make matters worse, there is the perception by some fairly smart people that there may not be a narrative to be found. We may be living in an America that is ungovernable.
System Failure Toward the end of the decade, as the establishment definitively rebuked Bush and sought to distance itself from his failures, the big-tent center-left coalition took on an influential constituency--the Colin Powells and Warren Buffetts--who didn't want reform so much as they wanted restoration. This was reflected in a strange internal tension in the Obama campaign rhetoric that simultaneously promised both: change you can believe in and, as Obama said at a March 2008 appearance in Pennsylvania, a foreign policy that is "actually a return to the traditional bipartisan realistic policy of George Bush's father."
If the working hypothesis that bound this unwieldy coalition together--independents, most liberals and the Washington establishment--was that the nation's troubles were chiefly caused by the occupants of the White House, then this past year has served as a kind of natural experiment. We changed the independent variable (the party and people in power) and can observe the results. It is hard, I think, to come to any conclusion but that the former hypothesis was insufficient.
The Teabaggers, Sarah Palin, they are a natural outgrowth of the elemental , gut level perception that things have become fundamentally unhinged. The pain that this movement seems to represent is all to real. The fear that this pain spawns leads them to flail about for reasons, causes, ways out, and heaven help anyone who has the responsibility, the job of trying to fix the mess - which maybe in the short term unfixable.
Here in Texas, the fallout of misgovernance is all around us. Recall our rankings in education, child welfare, prisons, care for the mentally ill, juvenile justice. Don't forget our defective revenue system make worse and worse by the Governor's mindless mantra of cutting taxes.
As the filing deadline approaches the political maneuvering is increasing and it appears that there is significant maneuvering revolving around Texas State Senate District Five. State Representative Dan Gattis announced this weekend that he will not be seeking the Republican nomination for Senate District Five, and according to a report by the Bryan College-Station Eagle, Gattis will also not be running for reelection citing personal reasons. Senator Steve Ogden announced this year that he was not running for reelection, but according to Gattis, Ogden's "willingness to return to the senate" was one of the reasons he decided to step aside.
According to an article in the Eagle, Senator Ogden's office made a statement that there will be an announcement later this week about the upcoming election. Currently Ogden's campaign web site displays the Senator's statement from earlier this year in regards to not seeking reelection. Ben Bius, the only other Republican seeking the nomination for Senate District Five, made a statement in the Eagle article that the speculation about Ogden running for reelection is "completely unfounded and baseless."
Could it be a question of fundraising? According to Texas Ethics Commission records, Senator Ogden reported $737,578 cash on hand as of the July Semiannual campaign finance report, while Representative Gattis reported only $81,039 on hand as of the July Semiannual campaign finance report. However, according to the latest campaign finance report, Ben Bius has reported no campaign contributions. Even if Gattis is having a difficult time raising money before the primary it does not mean that he would have a difficult time raising money for a general election, and the likelihood that he would face a serious Democratic opponent is low.
Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will "definitely not vote" in 2010 than are Republicans.
I can't find any numbers specifically for Texas, but if the Governor's race heats up with Bill White entering for the Dems, I suspect we will get much better statewide numbers.
The conclusion that DailyKos draws from these numbers is the importance of a viable Heath Care bill being passed. I agree. Having spent this much energy on this policy, we damn well better be able to have something positive to show for it.
The poll also included this bad news: a -17 in the right versus wrong direction for the country question.
Anybody in the dark as to why all the lying and manufactured outrage on the other side? I thought not.
I hoped that Steve Hotze had quietly retired from the hate mongering business. Alas, it is not so. He seems to be injecting himself into both the Mayor's race and at least 11 Texas House Races.
[form a state TDP email blast ]
Last week, Dr. Steven Hotze, a self-styled "Christian conservative" from Houston with a history of questionable and improper activities, used a blast email to announce plans that his right-wing Republican group was working to recruit Republican extremists to run in 11 Texas House districts held by Democrats. In February 2000, Hotze's political action committee was fined $5,000 by the Texas Ethics Commission, which was the largest fine in the Commission's history at the time ...
Ministers, conservatives work for Parker's defeat A cluster of socially conservative Houstonians is planning a campaign to discourage voters from choosing City Controller Annise Parker in the December mayoral runoff because she is a lesbian, according to multiple ministers and conservatives involved in the effort.
The group is motivated by concerns about a "gay takeover" of City Hall, given that two other candidates in the five remaining City Council races are also openly gay, as well as national interest driven by the possibility that Houston could become the first major U.S. city to elect an openly gay woman.
Another primary concern is that Parker or other elected officials would seek to overturn a 2001 city charter amendment that prohibits the city from providing benefits to the domestic partners of gay and lesbian employees.
"The bottom line is that we didn't pick the battle, she did, when she made her agenda and sexual preference a central part of her campaign," said Dave Welch, executive director of the Houston Area Pastor Council, numbering more than 200 senior pastors in the Greater Houston area. "National gay and lesbian activists see this as a historic opportunity. The reality is that's because they're promoting an agenda which we believe to be contrary to the concerns of the community and destructive to the family."
I actually went to high school with Dr. Hotze. He was a blinded by the right kind of guy back then too, but the hate mongering came on later in life. But he definitely made up for any lost time. From HCDP Chair Gerry Birnberg:
We are now about two weeks away from the November election in Washington State, and one item on the ballot that has national attention is Referendum 71, the so-called "everything but marriage" proposal that would give same-sex couples more rights and protections than they have today.
There has been a lot of conversation about whether it will or won't pass-and a lot of conversation about whether it should pass.
I hope it does, and if you live here I encourage you to vote "yes" November 3rd.
But that said, you may not be aware that Washington has an electoral system in transition, and that as a result of the transition Washington has some idiosyncrasies that will make forecasting the results a bit tougher, and determining the results a bit slower.
We'll talk about that today, and by the time we're done you should have an appreciation of the odd way in which things can work out-and that, absent a landslide, we aren't likely to know the results on Election Day.
College Station City Council member Dave Ruesink is facing a challenge for the council seat in Place 6 from two Texas A&M University students: Cliff Eggers and Chandler Salome.
Ruesink has served on the on the city council for the last three years, and the Bryan-College Station newspaper The Eagle said in a recent editorial that he "has shown himself to be more than up to the challenge of the job."
Ruesink supports funding for a permanent farmers marker in a visible central locations, and noted that having a market in Central Park would be a step forward but that a better location should be found. Also, Ruesink supports "smart growth," as opposed to urban sprawl, and has proposed the possibility of rasping property taxes on undeveloped property within the city to "make it more attractive to sell than to hold onto the land."
The construction of a new city hall has been an issue of great concern, and Ruesink had the most thoughtful approach to the problem. While agreeing that the city needs to be expanded, he also noted that it might not be possible to expand the current city hall efficiently in its current location. Ruesink said that "it would be more effective to being a totally new building that could incorporation "green" methods for construction."
*Note: Ruesink did not respond to Brazos Progressives questions about the US Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement, the curb side recycling program, or access for pedestrians, bicyclist, and wheel chair users.
Bryan residents will go the polls on Saturday to choose city council members. Well, choose might not be the best word. Unlike their neighbors across town in College Station, Bryan residents do not get to choose between the best of two or three candidates. Both candidates running for Bryan City Council are unopposed, which is not good for the democratic process. However, there are five propositions on the ballot that Bryan resident do get to either accept or reject. It is important to look at both of the candidates, even though they are unopposed, and the issues on the propositions.
November will be another wave election. Are you preparing to catch the wave or will you be left behind? My surfboard is ready. We can fight for change right here in Texas.
You can make a difference right now with our Online Phone Bank! Help me identify potential supporters. An online phone bank looks much like a typical phone bank, but it's paperless. All the information you'll need is on your computer through the internet.
The script and the "clickable" answers are on the screen. As you read the script and get responses, simply click the appropriate answer. When you hit "submit", the info feeds back into Texas VAN, and a new voter pops onto the screen for the next call. You can work from home, office, or a phone bank site. You can work for a few minutes between doing household chores or for hours at a time.
Please take a minute to register as a volunteer. Once you sign up, we'll provide you with the login information and a copy of the script. You can get started right away. Forward this email to your friends and family and ask them to volunteer too.
With the election only about 100 days away, maybe it is time to remind ourselves what we face.
There was a time when efforts to stop the other side from voting were pretty primitive. Such tactics as misinformation on voting times and sites, posting intimidating signs, having police officers patrol minority polling places, purge lists of felons which turnout to be sloppy , flawed and discriminatory (think Florida, 2000)- these are all old hat.
Want another reason for telling people to vote the straight Democratic ticket this fall? Tell them how important the down ticket judgeships and board memberships can be. Case in point: the State School Board....
I posted a dairy several months ago reporting the hopeful news that the state school board, contrary to appearances, was NOT going to revisit the Evolution Wars. I quote myself:
Texas Kaos:: Open Thread: State School Board Opposes the Teaching of ID!?! "My take: hold them to what they are saying now. I still don't trust'em, but I am open to changing my mind . Although creationism is the most prominent flash point in the debate over school curriculum, it is not the only one. That the newly appointed chairman, who is on the record as supporting creationism is now publicly he will not support its inclusion in the biology text is a major victory in my book."
The key source of hope was that the chairman of the state education board, Dr. Don McLeroy [R , College Station], had said that creationism would NOT be an issue anymore.
Some moments in life are crystalline. Everything makes sense, the light comes on, the penny drops. You suddenly know what to do, and you have no excuses.
I had a moment like that when boadicea told me that "we have to become the leaders we seek." I had another on Wednesday night.
I was in a gathering of women, some of whom were candidates for November 2008, others for November 2010, and some who weren't sure if they were ever going to run, but were at least thinking about it. We went around the room introducing ourselves, and talking about our races (current or future).
When we got to the back of the room, a woman stood up and told us that she wasn't going to run for anything, and we all had a collective inner groan ready to let loose. Then she told us why.
We are a year out from the elections. I thought, with Turkey Day coming and the beginning of the end of year madness, I would post on what I see as the big issues in the upcoming Texas ( and in many cases ) national elections. Check out mine, then post yours. In the best tradition of such lists, I will count them down from 10. Today, numbers 10-8.
Cornyn is called both strong and vulnerable
"Democrats look at poll numbers showing U.S. Sen. John Cornyn's approval rating stuck in the middle 40s and at his continued support for an increasingly unpopular war and an equally unpopular president, and they see a freshman Republican ripe for the taking in 2008. Republicans look at the same picture and see a seasoned political figure in touch with his party's base who is poised to win a second term in Washington. Recent Texas history would suggest that 13 months before voters settle the matter, the betting odds are with the GOP. And Cornyn's spokesman said that though the senator is confident that Texans will rehire him for another six years, he's taking nothing for granted heading into the election season."
Cross-posted from Blue Texas and Burnt Orange Report
Do you really think Republicans aren't going to mention this in their attack ads should Mikal Watts win the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination to face Bush rubber stamp incumbent John Cornyn?
After watching what Republicans did to another monied candidate, Tony Sanchez, in his race to seat Rick Perry in 2002, I'm very concerned about what lengths Republicans will go to attack Watts in any general election fight against Cornyn.
And given the GOP track record, is there any reason the GOP won't use Watts' wealth and work as a trial lawyer against him?
More below.
One new poll finds : "big changes that have an enduring quality" that will shape the 2008 presidential race. The Dems could be poised to win big.
Key takeaways:
* The "opinion elite" in the country -- those with a college education and earning more than $75,000 -- support a Democratic presidential candidate by an 11 point margin. * Independents have defected from Republican candidates and now support a Democrat for president by 19 points. * Young voters are breaking to Democrats with landslide margins. * Married women -- a key swing vote -- are breaking marginally for the Democrats this year after swinging strongly for the Republicans in 2004. * Unmarried women -- a key bloc of "base" voters for Democrats -- pick the Democratic candidate by two to one margin.
Now wait a minute, you say. That is all wrong! Nick Lampson just won De Lay's seat to Congress, what is all this about Ted Poe? Did I mention that the election the shamuses at FEC are talking about is the 2004 election? Talk about being on top of the problem. I mean think how dirty our elections would be if these super-slueths were not on the job! [snark]
Fast on the heels of the Young Democrats Convention (see the neat attack video form that event here), comes this survey from Democracy Corp. It finds that....
Democracy Corps
[snip]
...young people profoundly alienated from the Republican Party and
poised to deliver a significant majority to the Democratic nominee for President in 2008.
The political stakes with this generation could not be higher. In 2008, young people
(ages 18-31) will number 50 million, bigger than the baby boom generation. By 2015 they will
likely comprise one-third of the U.S. electorate. While participation among young people still
lags well behind other generations, turnout increased two election cycles in a row and, in 2004,jumped nine points (to 49 percent). In 2004, younger voters were the only generational cohort outside of the World War II generation to support John Kerry (56 percent).
